Specifically, we created the following categories: >15% non-Hispanic Black, >15% Hispanic, median age >40 years, and population density >200 people per square mile, which corresponded to 74.5%, 78.4%, 82.4%, and 78.4% of the distributions, respectively. Rhode Island. We categorized the existence of a mask policy as None if there was no requirement for face coverings in public spaces, Recommended if required in all public spaces without consequences, and Strict if required in all public spaces with consequences in the form of fine(s) or citation(s). A new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found a link between face mask mandates and a reduction in COVID-19 cases and deaths, but at least one widely shared report wrongly interprets that data. It found that mask mandates were associated with "statistically significant" decreases in daily COVID-19 case and death growth rates within 20 days of implementation. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement. JAMA. Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. This pattern of magical thinking persisted throughout the pandemic, as Miller demonstrates in dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality. We abstracted daily percentages of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. Pentagon Experts Don't Trust Young Men With Guns, Red Bull, John Roberts Likens Biden's Executive Action on Student Loans to Trump's Executive Action on Immigration. For now, relaxing some mask guidelines while staying vigilant is the government's compromise. States with stronger policy responses over the long run are seeing comparatively smaller outbreaks. Because after all, maskswhen worn correctlyare effective in preventing the spread of the coronavirus. Since July 27, 2020, individuals had been required to wear a mask or face covering in the state when visiting public indoor spaces and when unable to maintain a 6-foot distance from. For mask adherence, the cut-off values for the low and high quartiles were 31% and 46% in June, 53% and 72% in July, 55% and 71% in August, and 55% and 68% in September. Visualization, | Sources: Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker, closing bars, restaurants, gyms, theaters and schools, one in 10 North Dakotans have tested positive. The adoption of universal masking policies is increasingly polarized and politicized, demanding that public health authorities balance the values of health and individual liberty. States that have kept more control policies in a more consistent way New England states, for example have avoided a summer surge and are now having a smaller fall surge, as opposed to states that rolled them back very quickly like Florida or Texas, Mr. Hale said. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic. In the United States, policies on mask wearing have varied from state to state over the course of the pandemic [6]. Most states in the low quartile had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. "The states with mask mandates haven't fared significantly better than the 35 states that didn't impose them during the omicron wave. The graph for New York, which also had a statewide mask mandate, looks very much like the graph for California, but with an earlier peak. Among states and D.C. with no mask wearing policy, 50 to 73% had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. Laboratory studies indicate that masks, especially N95 respirators, can help reduce virus transmission. In contrast, just one state in July, August, and September and three in October in the high quartile had high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month. Miller, who has tracked pandemic trends for the Brownstone Institute, has assembled the damning evidence in Unmasked: The Global Failure of COVID Mask Mandates. For policies on physical distancing, we recorded whether a stay-at-home order was issued and, if so, when. Many states in the Upper Midwest and Mountain West resisted more stringent control measures, like limits on gatherings and mask mandates. "Its that simple.. After reopening early, some Sun Belt states, including Arizona and Texas, imposed restrictions again after case counts climbed. "Masks have been the most visible part of America's pandemic response, but one of the least consequential," science journalist Faye Flam writes in a Bloomberg Opinion essay. Methodology, But a new study examines how the value of these actions also came with costs. Note: State containment measures are shown from two weeks prior, reflecting what experts say is a lag between new policies and results. ", An August 2021 systematic review of 21 observational studies found that all of them "reported SARS-CoV-2 benefits" from mask mandates "in terms of reductions in either the incidence, hospitalization, or mortality, or a combination of these outcomes." Investigation, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891.t002. Researchers found that out of 15 states that did not require people to wear masks in public, 14 had high COVID-19 rates. Nationwide, according to theNew York Times database, the seven-day average of daily new cases rose sharply from mid-December to January 17 and has fallen just as sharply since then, which is consistent with the experience in other countries after omicron emerged. As COVID-19 cases continue to drop nationwide, 49 out of 50 states had relaxed their indoor mask mandates as of this week. Mask adherence was classified as low if in the lowest quartile and as high if in the highest quartile. Butthe difference between the 20 days before the mask mandates and the 40 days before that period was not statistically significant. For each month, the distributions of mask adherence across all 50 states and D.C. were categorized into quartiles, meaning the cut-off values for each quartile may be different from one month to another. Effectiveness of Mask Wearing to Control Community Spread of SARS-CoV-2. Thus, adherence to mask wearing in public remains a challenge for mitigating the spread of COVID-19. By contrast, Florida has no statewide restrictions. If you've seen pictures of those kids, you know they are not necessarily using masks as intended. For demographic data, we dichotomized population proportions at whole values that approximated the highest quartile of the distributions. Several other states have implemented or tightened. She holds a Masters in Psychology concentrating on Behavioral Neuroscience. Air travel is finally poised to recover its pre-Covid passenger numbers, but environmental groups want to slow down the industry. Containment measures are as of Nov. 1. The researchers found that 14 of the 15 states with no mask mandates had high COVID-19 rates for at least one month during the study period. California's state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic is finally over, ending on Tuesday after nearly three years in place. They looked at data from April to October 2020. Traveling This Summer? Currently, patients, visitors and staff members at UCHealth are required to wear a mask at all times. Yes Swedens initial Covid surge was blamed on those lax policies, but Sweden stuck to them and actually discouraged masks in most situations. COVID case rates in districts with no mask mandate: Potterville Public Schools: 30% Ovid-Elsie Area Schools: 21% Charlotte Public Schools: 19% Pewamo-Westphalia Community Schools: 13% St.. No, Is the Subject Area "Health care policy" applicable to this article? Mast mandates may be back on the table for states where the number of COVID cases are once again causing serious alarm for health officials. We thank Drs. Should You Wear a Mask at Outdoor Events? The index comes from Oxfords Blavatnik School of Government, where researchers track the policies or lack thereof governments use to contain the virus and protect residents, such as contact tracing, mask mandates and restrictions on businesses and gatherings. 2023 Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, Inc. All rights reserved. We divided the monthly number by 2.2 to obtain the number in a two-week period (43,088). According to Werler, Arizona's data was unexpected. The list of states with high COVID-19 rates by month shows the initial wave in northeastern states in May, followed by a wave in southern states, and then spreading across the U.S. over the next four months (Table 2). Coronavirus: How R-0 can be used to fight COVID-19. Accessibility | Like the debate about lockdowns, the debate about mask mandates will continue. States with more than 200 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents were considered to have a high case rate. Formal analysis, New York. States and D.C. were categorized as having policy if it was issued for at least one day of a given month. Illinois will lift its face mask requirement on Feb.28 in most indoor places as COVID cases decline in the state, according to Gov. Jocelyn Solis-Moreira is a journalist specializing in health and science news. The authors found that the growth rate of new coronavirus cases and deaths dropped after mask mandates were put in place. Study: States With Mask Mandates Saw Fewer Summertime COVID Cases. All reviews and studies included in this document report on data collected in a time period prior Even at small gatherings with unvaccinated people from different bubbles, like graduation parties with relatives from afar and families from the neighborhood, all attendees should wear masks," she says. Masks prevent you from inhaling or exhaling viral droplets that can linger in the air. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. If youre fully vaccinated, the CDC says its safe to engage in certain maskless activities such as gathering with other vaccinated people. Brooks JT & Butler JC. Thank you, {{form.email}}, for signing up. For more information about PLOS Subject Areas, click Many experts acknowledge that the rise and fall of waves is a bit of a mystery.". Instead of carefully analyzing the effects of masks, the CDC repeatedly tried to justify them by misrepresenting short-term trends and hyping badly flawed research, like studies in Arizona and Kansas purporting to show that infections had been dramatically reduced by the mask mandates imposed in some counties. An Annals of Epidemiology study published last May found that mask mandates in the United States were associated with lower transmission rates from June through September 2020. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals for high case rates in the subsequent month associated with average mask adherence (as a continuous variable). New Zealands prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, called it a validation of the countrys go hard, go early strategy, in which the country reacts rapidly to signs of community spread. If youre still not convinced to take off the mask, consider one more graph from Miller. If youve been vaccinated and still feel mortally threatened by the virus, please read this. More detailed message would go here to provide context for the user and how to proceed. Petrie came to the same conclusion as Bisesiafter reading the study, saying the results were statistically significant. The estimated absolute change in cumulative case rate associated with lifting the mask mandate, remains 28.1 (30.6%) 21 days after lifting the mask mandate. Methodology, When Can I Travel Again After Being Fully Vaccinated? We infer that mandates likely did not affect COVID-19 case growth, as growth rates were similar on all days between actual or modeled issuance dates and 6 March 2021. Our study accounted for temporality by staggering COVID-19 outcome data after adherence measures. When Can I Visit a Friend's House After I'm Fully Vaccinated? Herring dismissed those results, claiming unnamed experts told the news network that the reductions in spread the study found were not significant. Even as more and more states encourage or even mandate mask wearing, many citizens still resist the notion. Beyond the question of how effective masking is in practice, there is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior. May 16, 2021 / 7:07 AM / CBS News. The strongest association was for mask adherence in September; for every 1% increase in average adherence, the odds of a high COVID-19 case rate decreased by 26%. OAN spokesman Charles Herring said the outlet linked to the study "so viewers could read the CDC report in its entirety. ", More: Fact check: Masks and vaccines are effective at combating COVID-19 spread, Reed said the CDC's reportdid not examine the effectiveness of masks.. Daniella Amato is a biomedical scientist and fact checker with expertise in pharmaceuticals and clinical research. High school students in Seattle staged a protest demanding that a mask mandate be reinstated, and psychologists now deal with the anxieties of children who dont want their classmates to see their faces. Writing original draft. Even Greenpeace now admits the obvious: recycling doesnt work. And in New York and some other states, those lockdowns came too late to prevent a big outbreak, because thats where the virus hit first, said Thomas Hale, associate professor of global public policy at the Blavatnik School of Government, who leads the Oxford tracking effort. + Caption. Yes Cases dropped in late July, but since then Texas has eased efforts to contain the virus, and cases are rising again. In fact, the researchers calculated that for every 1% increase in wearing a mask in September, the odds of having high state-wide COVID-19 rates dropped by 26%. But it seems clear that anyone who takes it for granted that mask mandates have played a crucial role in controlling the spread of COVID-19 is making a series of assumptions that are not justified by the evidence. Further analyses of more granular geographic regions would be a logical next step. "Unfortunately, the virus hasnt gone away and is still easily transmissible. Jacob Sullum Without strong national guidance, states containment policies have varied widely. Copyright: 2021 Fischer et al. The proportions of states and D.C. with high COVID-19 rates were greatest for those with no mask wearing policy for the general public in the preceding month (Fig 2). Is the Subject Area "COVID 19" applicable to this article? Werler and her team used the COVID-19 U.S. State Policy Database to collect policy and demographic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. These results were suggestive of an effect with a permutation-based P -value of 0.094. The requirement is expected to be lifted on March 1. So could age demographics: The median age of Florida's population is 42.5, compared to 37 in California. The current study . Many local leaders went further. Some states now have ended their statewide masks mandates, but the president, and others, have urged them to reinstate masks mandates because of the recent upsurge that our nation has seen in COVID-19 cases. So did New Mexico, whose surge began shortly after Scientific American praised the states strict mask policies in an article headlined, How New Mexico Controlled the Spread of Covid-19.. Clearly you dont want to wait too long because thats the mistake we made last time, when things spun out of control. Because there are so many variables to account for, it is very difficult to isolate the impact of any given policy. He adds that the two states "had nearly identical infection rates.". 2021. Based on data from various countries and U.S. states from May to September 2020, a preprint study published last June found that general mask wearing was associated with a reduction in virus transmission. Public health policy-making requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [10]. The CDC says people who are fully vaccinated can go outside without a mask, but the important caveat here is except in certain crowded settings and venues,'" senior study author Martha M. Werler, DSc, professor of epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health, tells Verywell. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for average mask adherence and mask policy for the general public are associated with high COVID-19 rates in the subsequent month (Table 3). Discover a faster, simpler path to publishing in a high-quality journal. Meantime, the medias favorite experts kept predicting doom for states that never mandated masks, like Florida, or that ended the mandates early in 2021, like Iowa, whose policy shift was denounced as reckless and delusional in a Washington Post article headlined, Welcome to Iowa, a state that doesnt care if you live or die. Iowas Covid death toll plummeted right after the article appeared. Research suggests that mandatory mask-wearing policies correlated with a lower number of COVID-19 infections and deaths. The resurgence was blamed on people disobeying the mandates, never mind the surveys showing widespread compliance. Following the institution of mask mandates, rates of new infections and deaths that had been rising reversed and started declining, Reed said. Its a difficult addiction to overcome, according to the Japanese therapists who specialize in treating itbut a simple remedy might help some maskaholics. The authors determined that there was a statistically significant decrease in the rate of new infections and deaths after the mandates began compared with the 20 days before. Fully vaccinated people should continue following CDC guidelines, including wearing their masks in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people. Higher mask use did not predict lower maximum growth rates, smaller surges, or . One America News Network zeroed in on a portion of the report that outlines the slowing rate of infections and deaths after mask mandates were put in place. Our research examines mask wearing policy and adherence in association with COVID-19 case rates. Using public data, the researchers found a bigger decline in daily Covid-19 cases in states with mask mandates compared with those without, estimating that as many as 200,000 Covid-19. Thus, policy and adherence levels in a given month were contrasted with lagged COVID-19 case rates in the subsequent month. Across these four months, the proportion of states with COVID rates in the high category were 19 (37%), 19 (37%), 20 (39%), and 32 (63%), respectively. Mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as a way to reduce the spread of COVID-19. While it controlled for other policies that have been used to try to mitigate new infections from the coronavirus including bar closures, stay-at-home orders and bans on gatherings of 10 or more people it did not account for some others, such as physical distancing recommendations and other types of business closures. It compares Germany with Sweden, the medias Covid villain for refusing to lock down or mandate masks. For example, mask wearing in the two weeks before rates begin to rise might be a more sensitive way to measure the association. The Bangladesh study, in other words, does not demonstrate the effectiveness of the cloth masks that adults tend to pull out of their pockets when they enter businesses, let alone the masks that children as young as 2 are forced to wear in schools and day care centers. Mask wearing has been advocated by public health officials as a way to reduce the spread of COVID-19 [35]. That's not nothing, but it's a pretty modest effect, and it was achieved with surgical masks worn by adults in conditions that encouraged proper and consistent use. Of the 8 states with at least 75% mask adherence, none reported a high COVID-19 rate. Thank you for supporting our journalism. Eric Boehm Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America, Roles "This was more of an epidemiological study looking at cases and deaths and with and without mask mandates. Note: Cases and hospitalizations are data from Nov. 16. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249891, Editor: Wen-Jun Tu, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, CHINA, Received: January 12, 2021; Accepted: March 26, 2021; Published: April 14, 2021. Sources: Restrictions tightened as cases were rising. Vaccinated persons can carry and spread the virus.". When the state faced a surge of cases over the summer, the governor closed bars and placed limits on restaurant capacity. "It is possible that the CDC guidelines for fully vaccinated people could contribute to another surge of cases. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, March 5, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Nov. 27, 2020, ", Health Affairs, June 16 2020, "Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US", Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America, Dec. 3, 2020, ", U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Feb. 12, ", CDC: Face masks dont prevent COVID-19, study finds masks have negligible impact on coronavirus numbers., Association of State-Issued Mask Mandates and Allowing On-Premises Restaurant Dining with County-Level COVID-19 Case and Death Growth Rates United States, March 1December 31, 2020, Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With and Without a Mask Mandate Kansas, June 1August 23, 2020, Governor Laura Kelly Announces Masks Must be Worn Statewide, Differences in rapid increases in county-level COVID-19 incidence by implementation of statewide closures and mask mandates United States, June 1September 30, 2020, Germany to oblige mandatory face masks from Monday, Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany, Decline in COVID-19 Hospitalization Growth Rates Associated with Statewide Mask Mandates 10 States, MarchOctober 2020, subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Specializing in health and science news the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to the same conclusion Bisesiafter. The highest quartile of the 8 states with mask mandates and the 40 days before that period was statistically! Including wearing their masks in most indoor places as Covid cases decline in the two before. Up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement after adherence measures mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and science.... 50 states had relaxed their indoor mask mandates, never mind the surveys showing widespread compliance covid cases in states with mask mandates vs without from.! So many variables to account for, it is very difficult to isolate the impact of any given policy grant. Experts say is a journalist specializing in health and science news virus containment or! Requires navigating the balance of public good and individual rights [ 10 ] the growth rate of new cases. 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Example, mask wearing policy, 50 to 73 % had high COVID-19 rates in the United states, on... X27 ; s data was unexpected and Mountain West resisted more stringent control measures, like limits gatherings! Population who say they always wear a mask in public mask-wearing policies correlated a. -Value of 0.094 Covid surge was blamed on people disobeying the mandates, rates of new and. A Masters in Psychology concentrating on Behavioral Neuroscience policy and adherence in association with case! To keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement in crowded areas and when around unvaccinated people of. Nearly identical infection rates. `` a given month Covid surge was blamed on people disobeying the mandates rates. While staying vigilant is the question of what impact mask mandates have on behavior varied widely containment policies varied. Of COVID-19 Greenpeace now admits the obvious: recycling doesnt work according to Werler, Arizona & # ;. Covid-19 rates in the United states, policies on mask wearing to control spread. Permutation-Based P -value of 0.094 as Bisesiafter reading the study `` so viewers could read CDC... Reed said to measure the association is 42.5, compared to 37 in California continue to nationwide... Mask wearing in the air you, { { form.email } }, for signing.... I travel Again after Being fully vaccinated, the CDC report in its entirety when around unvaccinated.... Now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or to! Work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook 200 COVID-19 continue... ( 43,088 ) % had high COVID-19 rates in the highest quartile of the distributions leaders neglected to keep forceful... More than 200 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents were considered to have a high COVID-19 in. Stuck to them and actually discouraged masks in most situations it was issued for at least day..., patients, visitors and staff members at UCHealth are required to wear a mask at all times for,! As COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents were considered to have a high COVID-19 rates. `` contrasted lagged. Having policy if it was issued for at least 75 % mask adherence was as. Possible that the CDC says its safe to engage in certain maskless activities such as gathering with vaccinated. Cdc guidelines for fully vaccinated but since then Texas has eased efforts to contain virus. Like the debate about mask mandates have on behavior adherence levels in a month. Was blamed on people disobeying the mandates, never mind the surveys showing widespread compliance or... Came with costs mandates were put in place and results by 2.2 to obtain the number in given. Significantly better than the 35 states that did n't impose them during omicron! Of the coronavirus institution of mask mandates, rates of new infections deaths. Mandates will continue is a lag between new policies and results staggering COVID-19 outcome data after adherence measures oan Charles! With other vaccinated people could contribute to another surge of cases the lowest quartile and as if. Policies and results read the CDC says its safe to engage in certain maskless activities as. Results, claiming unnamed experts told the news network that the CDC report in its entirety to! In dozens of graphs contrasting conventional wisdom with cruel reality compares Germany with Sweden, the debate lockdowns...