Despite heavy amounts of artillery, armor and drones, neither side has been able to break through the others lines. Yet, in this invasion, Russian tanks are rolling all on their own or providing protection for reconnaissance scouts, but getting no protection for themselves. [70]The decision imposes sanctions on 109 Russian citizens involved in the deportation and forced adoption of Ukrainian children, including many regional representatives of the Russian Childrens Rights Commission and Human Rights Commission. Fighting around the town has been ongoing since March 2022, but has been escalating since Jan. 24 when Russia launched a renewed offensive. [58]Business InsiderandThe Economistnoted that 18 Russian factories are refurbishing old tanks and that two more repair plants will soon join the efforts. Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast), Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Svatove on February 28. And there will be lots of casualties. Furthermore, inadequate financing and military-industrial deficiencies have resulted in years of delays even for prominent projects like the Su-57 stealth fighter, T-14 Armata tank, and S-500 air defense system. [9]Putin has frequently invoked mentions of domestic security, law enforcement, and counterterrorism efforts when speaking about the war in Ukraine in order to portray the war as a threat to Russian internal security and to bring the war closer to his domestic constituency as ISW has previously reported. In the 21st century, Moscow must make do with a smaller, more professional military, and one that's better at keeping highly trained personnel alive. Faced with bad weather in northern Ukraine, the Russian officers grounded some Russian attack planes and helicopters, and forced others to fly at lower altitudes, making them more vulnerable to Ukrainian ground fire, a senior Pentagon official said. Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is currently in a war of words with the Russian military, accusing it of not supplying his organization with ammunition. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0NL2GH6ye8Z9QKkzyTCr https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-demand-tanks-outstrips-production https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/7267;https://t.me/Lunay14/3910. They are mercenaries. Top editors give you the stories you want delivered right to your inbox each weekday. Gen. Omar Bradley once said about different types of military officers, Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.* In that sense, Russians are amateurs. relying on tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts. [8]Putin also emphasized that the FSBs primary purpose is to support the Russian Armed Forces and Rosgvardia in their efforts to accomplish the objectives of the special military operation and noted the FSBs role in preventing incursions of Ukrainian sabotage groups onto Russian territory. Get the latest military news, entertainment, and gear in your inbox daily. He holds a master's degree from Georgetown University and served with the Peace Corps in China. The photograph is said to have been taken in late 2022. Russian forces attacked residential neighborhoods of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, with artillery on Monday. Image: AP. And Prigozhin also owns the Internet Research Agency - you know, the troll factory. It added: "Due to the lack of high-precision weapons, [42]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [44]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [45]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2023/02/28/kinburnska-kosa-kvytok-v-odyn-kinecz-dlya-okupanta-nataliya-gumenyuk/, [46]https://suspilnedot media/399500-rosijski-okupanti-ogolosuut-evakuaciu-koli-zbirautsa-tikati-gumenuk-pro-situaciu-na-livoberezzi-hersonsini/ ;https://suspilnedot media/398990-armia-rf-obstrilue-okupovani-naseleni-punkti-hersonsini-sob-vipravdati-svou-vtecu-gumenuk/. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report. Moscow's inability to gain and hold significant ground in Ukraine, coupled with the destruction of much of its equipment in battle, has forced it to deploy Soviet-era tanks and weapons systems, according to Western intelligence. The town itself has been shattered by the fighting, with buildings bombed out and streets abandoned. MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. In this operation, the Russian military never achieved the necessary momentum. As a result, two Il-76 transport planes, each carrying 100 airborne troops, were shot down. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky enacted a Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council decision to impose sanctions on Russian officials involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children on February 28. Russian occupation officials continue efforts to use educational institutions to eradicate Ukrainian identity in occupied territories. Do the sources know the information? Recent wars in Ukraine and Syria show how Russian ground forces practice "non-contact warfare," in which long-range precision fires rather than mechanized assault take the lead. They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. [34]Geolocated footage posted on February 27 shows Ukrainian troops striking Wagner positions near Ivanivske (5km west of Bakhmut), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops continue assaults towards Ivanviske itself. Have they proved reliable in the past? [56]Business Insideron February 28 cited an unspecified Western official observing that the Russian demand for tanks is outpacing supply and production by a factor of 10. Its seen as the first part of an expected spring offensive, and so far is not going well. Soviet strategy amounted to a full-court press on NATO's outnumbered defenses in sectors like the Fulda Gap, with second and third wave divisions awaiting in echelon to pour into areas where a breakthrough seemed promising. They're not all Russian citizens, but they are all, like, in the former Soviet, you know, sphere. Or Russia could try to shut down Ukraines banking system, or parts of the power grid, to increase pressure on the civilian population to capitulate. Myth #1: Russias 1994-1995 war in Chechnya demonstrates how incompetent and outdated Russias military remains a quarter-century later. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. Can we corroborate the information? Given the struggles the Russian military has had conducting precision strikes to force a surrender of Ukrainian military units, Moscows forces are likely to step up the kind of broader attacks that have led to rising numbers of civilian deaths. Significant activity in Belarus(ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. This is well known. "My call for a Ukraine national militia of quick-trained volunteers to attack stopped Russian columns opportunistically (the Finnish model) is misrepresented as a call for an endless guerilla war After losing a few soldiers the Russians will withdraw (as in Chechnya). He is a veteran, a former private military contractor and more recently an author. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. Ukrainian Polohy Mayor Yuriy Konovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration area in the southern part of Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, on February 27. Russia still fields far more numerous forces than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but not on the scale of the Soviet Union. You know, the U.S. Marine Corps? [69], Activity in Russian-occupied Areas(Russian objective: consolidate administrative control of and annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems). But a dissection of the Russian militarys performance so far, compiled from interviews with two dozen American, NATO and Ukrainian officials, paints a portrait of young, inexperienced conscripted soldiers who have not been empowered to make on-the-spot decisions, and a noncommissioned officer corps that isnt allowed to make decisions either. And it appears to keep happening, with Russian forces unable to avoid the mines. Russia has also reportedly lost an estimated total of 21,800 soldiers, and 191 drones. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. Sign up for notifications from Insider! He made those remarks while his coordination council met to discuss what Putin called "arising issues" in the defense sector, among other industries, per the Kremlin. Heightened tensions with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia's military. The Russian military is about twenty years behind, compared to Western powers. In everything that they do. So I think we need to update laws of armed conflict, and we have to figure out - you know, international law without teeth is just ink on paper. It hasn't - the horror hasn't started yet. Russia has begun military maneuvers with larger units in recent days and has assembled a large force around Kyiv that appears poised for a possible multipronged attack on the capital soon, he added. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. But nearly two weeks into President Vladimir V. Putins invasion of Ukraine Europes largest land war since 1945 the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered. News reports, tweets, videos, and emails from the battlefields show Russias armored vehicles abandoned for lack of fuel, its soldiers foraging for food, its transport planes shot out of the sky, its various military elementstanks, infantry, aircraftunable to coordinate their aims. [4]The recent resurgence of several standard Russian information operations in the form of false flag warnings and tired nuclear threats suggests that Russian officials are increasingly trying to mitigate the informational impacts of a continued lack of Russian battlefield successes as well as to slow down the provision of Western tanks and other equipment in advance of expected Ukrainian counter-offensives. Deutsche Wellereported that Lukashenko will sign a large package of agreements on developing joint projects, trade, economic, investment, humanitarian cooperation, and political cooperation with China during his three-day visit. I saw many opponents who are not that out dated want to arm wrestling with the Russian military, and end up being feed calendar It has never been d According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. [19]Lukashenko previously stated that the Belarusian defense industry can produce weapons since Belarus has access to microelectronics, optics, and other component imports from other states. The military mobilized an unspecified amount of BTR-50 armored personnel carriers, which have been spotted in Russian-occupied territory. And while the West was still scratching its head about what was really going on in eastern Ukraine, Crimea was a fait accompli. But its also due to the fact that the Russian army just isnt very good. Russian tank units, for instance, have deployed with too few soldiers to fire and protect the tanks, officials said. [60]A prominent Russian milblogger on February 28 amplified a report from a Russian soldier on December 9 that Russia has also fallen behind Ukrainian forces in terms of drone production and drone-operator training. WebPutin hints that Russia's weapons are outdated, saying it needs to modernize its military hardware. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. [22]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign [25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [26]https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun [27]https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795; https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, [28]https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680, [29]https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1630616430210170880?s=20;ht https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8071;https://t.me/LPR_JCCC/8069. At some point, superior firepower will win out, at least in the short run. [5]The Russian MoD and top Russian officials will likely escalate their engagement with such information operations as the ongoing Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast nears culmination and the opportunities for Ukrainian counter-offensives grow. And the results are the same. Even if they dont, the officials say a frustrated Mr. Putin has the firepower to simply reduce Ukraine to rubble although he would be destroying the very prize he wants. The current Russian army is a replica of Joseph Stalin s Red Army, designed to saturate minefields with bodies. MCFATE: Basically, it's anything that doesn't look like World War II is sort of, like, what that means, or sneaky warfare. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. But in the end, military officials say they still expect that mass will matter. [30]https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y [31]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ [32]https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot media/399023-na-bahmutskomu-napramku-frontu-situacia-uskladnuetsa-zelenskij/;https://suspilnedot media/399485-oleksandr-sirskij-rozpoviv-pro-situaciu-v-bahmuti/. The Ukrainians have obliterated several old tanks armed with abundant anti-tank-guided missiles. Nor should one overcompensate by dismissing enduring qualitative and economic limitations Russia's military must make up for. And we annihilated them systematically because they had no air defense artillery. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after Russias invasion of Ukraine a year ago. However, some of their age-old weaknesses havent been fixed at all. Russian independent media outlets also reported on February 27 that Russian courts extended the sentence of a Moscow resident previously sentenced for an While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. The latest: Ukraines air defenses thwarted a number of Russian missiles fired at targets across the country on Thursday. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: This isnt a good army executing a bad plan. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. You've written extensively about these groups. MCFATE: I talked to people on the inside. Russian armor losses have been so severe that military leadership is dipping into a fleet of outdated vehicles. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. Bakhmut is also where the Kremlin-aligned mercenary organization the Wagner Group has been leading the push, suffering heavy losses along the way, many of which are from the convicts recruited into the group. As the resistance mounts and as the Russians offensive is thwarted, Putin and his generals can be expected to turn up the heat, shellingand, recently, bombingcities, destroying whatever they can destroy, for destructions sake. MARTIN: And do you - there has been as - we've had a number of discussions about war crimes being committed in Ukraine. Russian officials and media insist there is a moral cause for Russias invasion of Ukraine and describe it as necessary for the survival of Russians and the Russian world. But this doesnt mean they will win in the long run. [51]Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Kherson City, Ochakiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, and Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The larger issue is that it's mistaken to assume stereotypes about the Russian and Soviet militaries from the World Wars, the Cold War or the Yeltsin years necessarily remain true today. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023.pdf, Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts), Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. MARTIN: So one reason I think that Russian tactics stand out is that, in recent years, we have really associated the Russians with so-called hybrid war - right? The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka area near Kamianka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske; Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pervomaiske. Russia Is Still Using 60-Year-Old Tanks in Ukraine. All this aside, it is still possibleeven likelythat, if the fighting goes on much longer, the Russians will overtake the Ukrainians,capture Kyiv, and possibly oust the current government. https://t.me/mod_russia/24466;https://t.me/mod_russia/24467;https:// https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-does-not-see-significant-near-term-r https://www.vice.com/en/article/bvmwk4/pentagon-putin-nukes-ukraine. It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. https://twitter.com/fdov21/status/1630339835058593794;https://t.me/y https://www.facebook.com/watch/president.gov.ua/;https://suspilnedot. The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense reported that Russias Aerospace Forces would likely have only six operational A-50s in service if this attack were successful. He's going back to the 1940s. All rights reserved. Former Soviet satellite Slovakia has been a NATO member since 2004, but the reality of belonging to the worlds biggest military alliance really kicked in after On Friday, he told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that the military's registration and enlistment offices have to be modernized, noting "certain problems, difficulties" in Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, per Russian news outlet Moscow 24. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, now approaching its ninth month, has revealedsystemic flaws in its army's logistics, war doctrine, and military technology. [23]Another milblogger claimed that assault detachment elements of the 3rd Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) pushed Ukrainian forces out of unspecified high-ground positions on the Svatove-Kreminna line. 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